Napoli
Villarreal
Win Probability
Projected score
1.3 – 1.7
Napoli travels to face Villarreal in a Champions League fixture where the simulation favours the hosts clearly. The game hinges on whether Villarreal can convert the chances it creates; AccuScore projects them to score 1.9 goals, well above the most likely outcome of a single goal. On win-probability shapes this close—where the favourite sits between 50 and 60 percent—the model's record across similar matchups stands at 44 percent over more than 4,000 graded games. For Napoli to escape with a result, they would need to tighten their defence significantly while finding clinical finishing on the road, a combination the simulation rates as unlikely given the visiting side's projected 1.0 goals.
| Book | Line | VIL | EV | NAP | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| bet365 ↗ | — | — | — | — | — |
| Book | VIL | EV | NAP | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle ↗ | +120 | -1.0% | +212 | -5.2% |
| Betfair ↗ | +125 | +0.1% | +188 | -8.7% |
| bet365 ↗ | +120 | -1.0% | +210 | -5.5% |
| William Hill ↗ | +120 | -1.0% | +200 | -7.0% |
| BetVictor ↗ | +120 | -1.0% | +200 | -7.0% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle ↗ | 2.5 | -143 | -1.6% | +115 | -3.8% |
| Betfair ↗ | 2.5 | -154 | -3.0% | +110 | -4.9% |
| bet365 ↗ | 2.5 | -137 | -0.7% | +110 | -4.9% |
| BetVictor ↗ | 2.5 | -152 | -2.7% | +105 | -5.9% |
| Marathon ↗ | 2.5 | -139 | -1.0% | +115 | -3.8% |
Where to Bet
silverWin probability: 44.5%
Champions League
AccuScore's simulation makes Villarreal 45% to win, Napoli 29%, with a 27% chance of a draw. Projected score: Napoli 1.3, Villarreal 1.7. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1 (11% of simulations).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Villarreal the more likely winner at 45%, with a 27% chance of a draw. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Villarreal a 45% chance of beating Napoli, with 29% for Napoli and 27% for a draw. Villarreal are at home and favoured on these numbers.
AccuScore projects Napoli 1.3, Villarreal 1.7, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline.