Sporting CP
Lens
Win Probability
Projected score
1.3 – 2.0
Sporting travels to Lens in a Champions League matchup where the simulation clearly favors the home side. The model projects a narrow margin despite Lens's advantage in win probability, with the most likely outcome a 1–1 draw appearing in 10% of simulations. On games shaped like this one—where the home side carries a strong lean—AccuScore's historical record stands at 44% over 4,074 graded matchups. The outcome hinges on whether Sporting can generate enough away from home to offset Lens's hosting advantage; a Sporting upset would require the visitors to exceed their 1.3 projected output substantially.
| Book | Line | LEN | EV | SPO | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| bet365 ↗ | — | — | — | — | — |
| Book | LEN | EV | SPO | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle ↗ | +148 | +14.1% | +161 | -17.6% |
| Betfair ↗ | +145 | +13.3% | +160 | -17.8% |
| bet365 ↗ | +145 | +13.3% | +155 | -18.4% |
| William Hill ↗ | +140 | +12.0% | +162 | -17.5% |
| BetVictor ↗ | +140 | +12.0% | +160 | -17.8% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle ↗ | 2.5 | -175 | -0.1% | +140 | -6.1% |
| Betfair ↗ | 2.5 | -200 | -2.4% | +140 | -6.1% |
| bet365 ↗ | 2.5 | -175 | -0.1% | +138 | -6.5% |
| BetVictor ↗ | 2.5 | -185 | -1.1% | +127 | -8.5% |
| Marathon ↗ | 2.5 | -167 | +0.7% | +138 | -6.5% |
Where to Bet
silverWin probability: 51.7%
Champions League
AccuScore's simulation makes Lens 52% to win, Sporting CP 25%, with a 24% chance of a draw. Projected score: Sporting CP 1.3, Lens 2.0. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1 (10% of simulations).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Lens the more likely winner at 52%, with a 24% chance of a draw. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Lens a 52% chance of beating Sporting CP, with 25% for Sporting CP and 24% for a draw. Lens are at home and favoured on these numbers.
AccuScore projects Sporting CP 1.3, Lens 2.0, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline.