Tottenham Hotspur
Manchester United
Win Probability
Moneyline
TOT
+367
15.3% win prob
EV -14.3%
1xBet
Draw
Draw
+331
25% prob
EV +4.1%
Pinnacle
Moneyline
MUN
-132
59.6% win prob
EV +2.4%
1xBet
Projected score
0.8 – 1.7
Manchester United hosts Tottenham Hotspur in a fixture where the simulation decisively favours the home side. AccuScore's model has run 10,000 simulations and leans emphatically toward Manchester United, projecting a low-scoring affair where the contest turns on which side can convert limited chances into goals. The most likely outcome appears in 14% of simulations. On games shaped like this one—where the home team sits around 60% to win—AccuScore's record across similar matchups stands at 44% over thousands of graded games. For Tottenham Hotspur to upset that lean, they would need to overcome a visiting disadvantage while penetrating a Manchester United side favoured decisively in its own stadium.
| Book | TOT | EV | Draw | EV | MUN | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle ↗ | +337 | -16.6% | +331 | +4.1% | -139 | +1.2% |
| Betfair ↗ | +340 | -16.3% | +310 | +1.5% | -149 | -0.2% |
| bet365 ↗ | +350 | -15.6% | +290 | -1.1% | -149 | -0.2% |
| William Hill ↗ | +333 | -16.9% | +300 | +0.2% | -143 | +0.6% |
| BetVictor ↗ | +333 | -16.9% | +310 | +1.5% | -149 | -0.2% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle ↗ | 3 | -128 | -17.1% | +109 | +16.8% |
| Betfair ↗ | 2.5 | -222 | -16.4% | +155 | +18.4% |
| bet365 ↗ | 2.5 | -189 | -14.5% | +150 | +17.0% |
| BetVictor ↗ | 3 | -139 | -17.9% | -103 | +13.6% |
| Marathon ↗ | 3 | -137 | -17.7% | +101 | +14.6% |
Where to Bet
silverWin probability: 25.1%
EPL
AccuScore's simulation makes Manchester United 60% to win, Tottenham Hotspur 15%, with a 25% chance of a draw. Projected score: Tottenham Hotspur 0.8, Manchester United 1.7. The single most likely scoreline is 0–1 (14% of simulations).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Manchester United the more likely winner at 60%, with a 25% chance of a draw. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Manchester United a 60% chance of beating Tottenham Hotspur, with 15% for Tottenham Hotspur and 25% for a draw. Manchester United are at home and favoured on these numbers.
AccuScore projects Tottenham Hotspur 0.8, Manchester United 1.7, with 0-1 the single most likely scoreline.