Malaga
3
Villarreal
1
Win Probability
Moneyline
MLG
+119
12.6% win prob
EV -36.2%
Pinnacle
Draw
Draw
+265
19% prob
EV -14.8%
SBOBET
Moneyline
VIL
+272
68.1% win prob
EV +76.7%
1xBet
Projected score
1.0 – 2.4
| Book | MLG | EV | Draw | EV | VIL | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle ↗ | +119 | -36.2% | +260 | -15.3% | +241 | +66.1% |
| bet365 ↗ | +110 | -36.8% | +260 | -15.3% | +240 | +65.8% |
| William Hill ↗ | +100 | -37.4% | — | — | +250 | +69.2% |
| BetVictor ↗ | +110 | -36.8% | — | — | +240 | +65.8% |
| 1xBet ↗ | +101 | -37.3% | +263 | -15.0% | +272 | +76.7% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle ↗ | 2.75 | -110 | — | — | — |
| Betfair ↗ | 2.5 | -154 | +4.0% | — | — |
| bet365 ↗ | 2.5 | -175 | +1.4% | +138 | -8.9% |
| Marathon ↗ | 3 | +104 | +5.3% | -141 | -9.5% |
| 1xBet ↗ | 3 | +108 | +6.2% | -130 | -8.5% |
| # | Player | Min | G | A | Pss | Sv | Rat |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alfonso HerreroG | 90 | — | — | 38(24) | 3 | 6.2 |
| 15 | Ángel RecioD | 90 | — | — | 34(33) | — | 8 |
| 4 | Einar GalileaD | 90 | — | — | 50(44) | — | 6.6 |
| 3 | Carlos PugaD | 75 | — | — | 23(16) | — | 6.9 |
| 12 | Jose SalinasD | 45 | — | — | 8(7) | — | 6 |
| 10 | David LarrubiaM | 90 | — | — | 23(17) | — | 6.2 |
| 18 | Pablo MartínezM | 90 | — | — | 23(18) | — | 6.5 |
| 23 | Izan MerinoM | 61 | — | — | 20(18) | — | 6.5 |
| 8 | Carlos DotorM | 61 | 1 | — | 31(27) | — | 7.5 |
| 19 | Juan CruzM | 45 | — | 1 | 10(6) | — | 6.9 |
| 9 | ChupeteF | 90 | — | — | 14(9) | — | 6.9 |
| Substitutes | |||||||
| 13 | Carlos LopezG sub | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 31 | Rafa GarridoD sub | 45 | — | — | 19(17) | — | 7 |
| 5 | Álex PastorD sub | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 25 | Juan BerrocalD sub | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 22 | Dani LorenzoM sub | 45 | — | — | 28(25) | — | 6.6 |
| 6 | Ramón EnríquezM sub | 15 | — | — | 15(12) | — | 6.5 |
| 14 | Rafa RodríguezM sub | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 11 | Joaquín MuñozF sub | 29 | — | — | 8(5) | — | 6.5 |
| 21 | Adrián NiñoF sub | 29 | — | — | 3(3) | — | 6.2 |
| 32 | Juan FernandézF sub | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 17 | Eneko JauregiF sub | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Where to Bet
silverWin probability: 65.4%
La Liga
Final · MLG 3–1 VIL ·
AccuScore's simulation makes Villarreal 68% to win, Malaga 13%, with a 19% chance of a draw. Projected score: Malaga 1.0, Villarreal 2.4. The single most likely scoreline is 0–2 (10% of simulations). Final score: Malaga 3, Villarreal 1.
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Villarreal the more likely winner at 68%, with a 19% chance of a draw. The game finished Malaga 3, Villarreal 1.
AccuScore's simulation gives Villarreal a 68% chance of beating Malaga, with 13% for Malaga and 19% for a draw. It finished Villarreal 1, Malaga 3.
AccuScore projects Malaga 1.0, Villarreal 2.4, with 0-2 the single most likely scoreline.