How often the favourite won, how often the home side won, and how often the total went over — across 859 played Champions League games in AccuScore's archive. None of this is our model. The favourite is whichever side the bookmakers priced shorter, and the result is the result.
Seasons run August to May. The favourite is the side with the shorter moneyline.
| Season | Games | Favourite won | Home won | Drawn | Over |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 189 | 58.7% | 49.7% | 18.0% | 52.9% |
| 2024-25 | 189 | 60.1% | 50.3% | 14.8% | 55.6% |
| 2023-24 | 124 | 56.1% | 46.8% | 22.6% | 48.3% |
| 2022-23 | 96 | 61.5% | 47.9% | 19.8% | 52.2% |
| 2021-22 | 125 | 58.9% | 45.6% | 20.0% | 36.7% |
| 2020-21 | 136 | 65.2% | 41.2% | 18.4% | 36.9% |
Across 855 priced Champions League games in AccuScore's archive, the favourite won 60.0% of the time. The favourite is whichever side the bookmakers made shorter, not whichever side we projected.
Home teams won 47.3% of 859 games in the archive, with 18.5% drawn.
Of 667 games with a posted total, 49.8% went over. A rate near half is what an efficient market looks like — the number is interesting when a season moves away from it.