Bundesliga betting trends
How often the favourite won, how often the home side won, and how often the total went over — across 3,672 played Bundesliga games in AccuScore's archive. None of this is our model. The favourite is whichever side the bookmakers priced shorter, and the result is the result.
Seasons run August to May. The favourite is the side with the shorter moneyline.
- Favourites won
- 52.5%
- 3,624 priced games
- Home teams won
- 44.5%
- 3,672 games
- Drawn
- 25.0%
- Went over
- 46.1%
- 3,628 with a total
Season by season
| Season | Games | Favourite won | Home won | Drawn | Over |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 313 | 56.1% | 43.1% | 25.9% | 45.8% |
| 2024-25 | 306 | 52.3% | 38.6% | 25.5% | 45.4% |
| 2023-24 | 308 | 54.2% | 43.5% | 26.3% | 41.9% |
| 2022-23 | 306 | 53.1% | 47.4% | 24.5% | 42.2% |
| 2021-22 | 307 | 51.6% | 46.6% | 23.8% | 44.6% |
| 2020-21 | 306 | 51.5% | 42.2% | 26.5% | 41.4% |
| 2019-20 | 296 | 50.2% | 41.2% | 22.0% | 50.0% |
| 2018-19 | 306 | 53.6% | 45.1% | 23.9% | 52.6% |
What these numbers mean
How often do Bundesliga favourites win?
Across 3,624 priced Bundesliga games in AccuScore's archive, the favourite won 52.5% of the time. The favourite is whichever side the bookmakers made shorter, not whichever side we projected.
Do Bundesliga home teams have an advantage?
Home teams won 44.5% of 3,672 games in the archive, with 25.0% drawn.
How often do Bundesliga games go over the total?
Of 3,628 games with a posted total, 46.1% went over. A rate near half is what an efficient market looks like — the number is interesting when a season moves away from it.