The Philadelphia Eagles' season changed on Monday. Jalen Hurts is expected to miss the rest of the year after doctors found blood clots in his lungs. He has deep vein thrombosis and pulmonary emboli and will be treated with blood thinners for at least three months, which rules out football activity. Tanner McKee, who started Sunday's 25–14 loss to Carolina, takes over a 2–4 team that has lost four straight.
We ran the rest of Philadelphia's season through the AccuScore simulation twice: once with Hurts starting all 11 remaining games, and once with McKee. Everything else stayed the same: the schedule, the other 31 teams, and the results already in the books.
The AccuScore Projection
| Eagles (2–4) | With Hurts | With McKee | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Projected wins (full season) | 7.5 | 5.8 | −1.7 |
| Make the playoffs | 35.9% | 15.4% | −20.5 pts |
| Win the NFC East | 32.8% | 14.2% | −18.6 pts |
| Win the NFC | 2.5% | 0.5% | −2.0 pts |
| Win the Super Bowl | 1.0% | 0.2% | −0.8 pts |
The gap comes down to one number. Our rating model values Hurts at about 5.6 points per game over McKee. With Hurts, Philadelphia was a slight favorite in its average remaining game (+0.6). With McKee, it is roughly a five-point underdog (−5.0). Over 11 games, that turns a 2–4 team with a real path back into the race into a long shot.
What the Simulation Sees
At 2–4, the Eagles had little room for error even before Monday's news. To reach the playoffs they need something like 7–4 or better the rest of the way. With Hurts, our simulations gave them about a one-in-three chance of doing it. With McKee, they get there in roughly one season out of seven.
McKee's first start showed both sides of it. He completed 26 of 45 passes for 215 yards, with a fourth-quarter touchdown to DeVonta Smith and no interceptions. But the offense averaged under five yards per attempt and managed 14 points against Carolina.
The NFC East Picture
Nobody in the division has taken control, and that is the Eagles' best argument for hope.
| Team | Record | Win the NFC East | Make the playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dallas Cowboys | 2–4 | 35.4% | 39.3% |
| New York Giants | 3–2 | 31.0% | 35.5% |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 2–4 | 20.6% | 22.7% |
| Washington Commanders | 1–4 | 13.1% | 15.8% |
AccuScore's published season forecast as of Tuesday 20 October, after the season-ending diagnosis.
Our published forecast has already moved. Since Monday, Philadelphia's projected win total has dropped from 7.0 to 6.6, its playoff chance from 26.7% to 22.7%, and its division chance from 24.0% to 20.6%. The published forecast blends our simulation with the betting market, and the market is not yet as pessimistic as the McKee scenario above, so the published Eagles numbers still sit between our two columns. Dallas and New York have gained the most: the Cowboys are now the favorites to win the division at 35.4%, with the Giants at 31.0%.
What to Watch
- Dallas at Philadelphia, Monday 26 October. McKee's first start against a division rival, and a direct swing in the NFC East race. A loss would drop the Eagles to 2–5 and below Dallas in the division.
- The weekly scorecard. Our model values a starting quarterback by what he has shown so far. McKee's rating updates after every start, so if he plays better than his rating, the projections will follow.
- The schedule eases late. Philadelphia still has both games against the Giants and the Cowboys, plus home dates with Indianapolis and Seattle. Division games are where a backup-quarterback team can still claw back ground.
AccuScore projections come from the AccuScore simulation engine and blend our model with market prices. They are probabilities, not guarantees. Figures as of 20 October 2026.