Toronto Maple Leafs
1-1
Vegas Golden Knights
1-0
Win Probability
Moneyline
TOR
31.7% win prob
Moneyline
VGK
68.3% win prob
Projected score
2.7 – 3.8
When the Toronto Maple Leafs visit Vegas Golden Knights, the simulation favours the home side clearly. Vegas projects to outscore Toronto by over a goal, with the Knights' depth expected to generate the difference in a tight contest. On games shaped like this one—home teams favoured in the 60–70% range—AccuScore's record stands at 60% over 1928 graded games. For Toronto to pull the upset, the Maple Leafs would need to convert their scoring chances at a rate above projection and keep Vegas's attack below its simulated output.
NHL
AccuScore's simulation makes Vegas Golden Knights 68% to beat Toronto Maple Leafs (32%). Projected score: Toronto Maple Leafs 2.7, Vegas Golden Knights 3.8.
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Vegas Golden Knights the more likely winner at 68%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Vegas Golden Knights a 68% chance of beating Toronto Maple Leafs, against 32% for Toronto Maple Leafs. Vegas Golden Knights are at home and favoured on these numbers.
AccuScore projects Toronto Maple Leafs 2.7, Vegas Golden Knights 3.8.