Philadelphia Flyers
0-1
Tampa Bay Lightning
0-1
Win Probability
Moneyline
PHI
37.3% win prob
Moneyline
TB
62.7% win prob
Projected score
2.6 – 3.3
The Tampa Bay Lightning host the Philadelphia Flyers in a matchup where the simulation clearly favours the home side. Scoring will be tight: the model projects Tampa Bay to edge out Philadelphia by less than a goal, with the outcome turning on whether the Flyers can generate enough offensive pressure to overcome playing on the road. On games shaped like this one—home teams with a moderate to strong lean—AccuScore's model has won 60% of the time across nearly 2,000 graded contests. For Philadelphia to pull the upset, the Flyers would need to convert their scoring chances at a rate well above the simulation's expectations and limit Tampa Bay's output in the process.
NHL
AccuScore's simulation makes Tampa Bay Lightning 63% to beat Philadelphia Flyers (37%). Projected score: Philadelphia Flyers 2.6, Tampa Bay Lightning 3.3.
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Tampa Bay Lightning the more likely winner at 63%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Tampa Bay Lightning a 63% chance of beating Philadelphia Flyers, against 37% for Philadelphia Flyers. Tampa Bay Lightning are at home and favoured on these numbers.
AccuScore projects Philadelphia Flyers 2.6, Tampa Bay Lightning 3.3.