Ottawa Senators
0-0
Toronto Maple Leafs
1-1
Win Probability
Projected score
3.7 – 2.4
The Ottawa Senators travel to Toronto to face the Maple Leafs in a matchup where the simulation clearly favours the visitors. AccuScore projects a tight affair that hinges on special teams execution and goaltending stability—areas where variance compounds across a full game. On similar win-probability shapes across eight other matchups, the model's side has won six times, though the historical record on this exact scenario runs just under 50% across nearly 1,900 graded games. For Toronto to pull the upset at home, the Maple Leafs would need to control the run of play in the third period and convert on one of their high-danger chances when it matters most.
| Book | Line | TOR | EV | OTT | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -0.5 | +160 | — | -210 | — |
| FanDuel ↗ | -1.5 | +180 | — | -225 | — |
| BetMGM ↗ | -1.5 | +185 | — | -225 | — |
| Book | TOR | EV | OTT | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -125 | -23.8% | +105 | +22.7% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -128 | -24.1% | +106 | +23.0% |
| BetMGM ↗ | -125 | -23.8% | +105 | +22.7% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 6.5 | +105 | -5.2% | -125 | +0.7% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 6.5 | +104 | -5.4% | -128 | +0.1% |
| BetMGM ↗ | 6 | -118 | -3.1% | -102 | -0.6% |
Where to Bet
silverWin probability: 83.0%
NHL
AccuScore's simulation makes Ottawa Senators 71% to beat Toronto Maple Leafs (29%). Projected score: Ottawa Senators 3.7, Toronto Maple Leafs 2.4.
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Ottawa Senators the more likely winner at 71%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Toronto Maple Leafs a 29% chance of beating Ottawa Senators, against 71% for Ottawa Senators. Toronto Maple Leafs are at home but the underdog on these numbers.
AccuScore projects Ottawa Senators 3.7, Toronto Maple Leafs 2.4.