NHL
Washington Capitals
0-0
Tampa Bay Lightning
0-1
Win Probability
Projected score
2.8 – 3.5
The Washington Capitals travel to face the Tampa Bay Lightning in a matchup where the simulation leans clearly toward the home side. Over 10,000 simulations, Tampa Bay emerges as the favoured team. On games shaped like this one—where the home side holds a modest but meaningful advantage—AccuScore's model has won 7 of 8 comparable fixtures. Washington's path to an upset runs through offensive execution: the Capitals need their scoring to outpace Tampa Bay's, since the projected totals show both teams clustered in the low-to-mid threes. If the visitors can generate sustained pressure and convert on their chances, they have the talent to pull away from the simulation's lean.
| Book | Line | TB | EV | WAS | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -0.5 | +150 | — | -195 | — |
| FanDuel ↗ | -1.5 | +138 | — | -170 | — |
| BetMGM ↗ | -1.5 | +155 | — | -190 | — |
| Book | TB | EV | WAS | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -155 | +2.0% | +130 | -7.7% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -164 | +0.9% | +136 | -6.6% |
| BetMGM ↗ | -150 | +2.7% | +125 | -8.6% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 6.5 | +114 | -0.7% | -135 | -3.1% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 6.5 | +100 | -3.9% | -122 | -1.0% |
| BetMGM ↗ | 6 | -118 | -1.2% | -102 | -2.7% |
Where to Bet
silverWin probability: 68.8%
AccuScore's simulation makes Tampa Bay Lightning 63% to beat Washington Capitals (37%). Projected score: Washington Capitals 2.8, Tampa Bay Lightning 3.5.
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Tampa Bay Lightning the more likely winner at 63%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Tampa Bay Lightning a 63% chance of beating Washington Capitals, against 37% for Washington Capitals. Tampa Bay Lightning are at home and favoured on these numbers.
AccuScore projects Washington Capitals 2.8, Tampa Bay Lightning 3.5.