Aston Villa
Fenerbahçe
Win Probability
Moneyline
AVL
72.4% win prob
Moneyline
FEN
9.1% win prob
Projected score
2.5 – 0.8
Aston Villa travels to face Fenerbahçe in a Champions League matchup where the simulation decisively favors the visitors. The model projects a comfortable away win, with Villa's attack expected to impose its will; across 10,000 simulations, the most likely outcome saw Villa prevail by two goals to nil. AccuScore's record on similarly shaped away-side calls stands at 90% over 51 graded games. The fixture turns on whether Fenerbahçe can generate enough attacking threat to keep the score respectable—a 58% probability that combined goals exceed the market total suggests the simulation expects a relatively open game, not a defensive stalemate. For the hosts to escape with a result, they would need to neutralize Villa's offensive advantage and convert their limited chances with precision.
Champions League
AccuScore's simulation makes Aston Villa 72% to win, Fenerbahçe 9%, with a 19% chance of a draw. Projected score: Aston Villa 2.5, Fenerbahçe 0.8. The single most likely scoreline is 2–0 (12% of simulations).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Aston Villa the more likely winner at 72%, with a 19% chance of a draw. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Fenerbahçe a 9% chance of beating Aston Villa, with 72% for Aston Villa and 19% for a draw. Fenerbahçe are at home but the underdog on these numbers.
AccuScore projects Aston Villa 2.5, Fenerbahçe 0.8, with 2-0 the single most likely scoreline.