Roma
Real Madrid
Win Probability
Moneyline
ROM
23.5% win prob
Moneyline
RMA
54.3% win prob
Projected score
1.7 – 2.6
Roma travels to the Estadio Santiago Bernabéu facing a Real Madrid side that the simulation favors clearly in this Champions League clash. The model projects a 2.6-goal haul for the hosts against Roma's 1.7, with the most likely outcome a 2–1 Real Madrid win appearing in 8 percent of simulations. Whether the total climbs above the market line depends chiefly on Roma's capacity to score on the road; the simulation gives them a 63 percent chance the combined goals exceed expectations. On similar matchups where the home side carried a comparable advantage, AccuScore's model won just once across eight past games. For Roma to escape with a result, their attack would need to overcome Real Madrid's home setup and defy a projection that leans heavily toward the hosts.
Champions League
AccuScore's simulation makes Real Madrid 54% to win, Roma 24%, with a 22% chance of a draw. Projected score: Roma 1.7, Real Madrid 2.6. The single most likely scoreline is 1–2 (8% of simulations).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Real Madrid the more likely winner at 54%, with a 22% chance of a draw. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Real Madrid a 54% chance of beating Roma, with 24% for Roma and 22% for a draw. Real Madrid are at home and favoured on these numbers.
AccuScore projects Roma 1.7, Real Madrid 2.6, with 1-2 the single most likely scoreline.