RB Leipzig
PSV
Win Probability
Moneyline
RBL
44.3% win prob
Moneyline
PSV
31.9% win prob
Projected score
2.1 – 1.8
RB Leipzig travels to PSV in a Champions League fixture the simulation favours slightly toward the visitors. The projection hinges on finishing: Leipzig's attack is modelled to generate 2.1 goals, while PSV's defensive shape is expected to concede 1.8. Leipzig has won 44 percent of simulations to PSV's 32 percent, with a 24 percent draw rate. On similar win-probability shapes across eight comparable matchups, the favoured away side won none of them—a sobering historical note for backing the travelling team. For PSV to overturn the lean, they would need to compress Leipzig's scoring chances and convert their own at an above-projection rate.
Champions League
AccuScore's simulation makes RB Leipzig 44% to win, PSV 32%, with a 24% chance of a draw. Projected score: RB Leipzig 2.1, PSV 1.8. The single most likely scoreline is 2–1 (8% of simulations).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes RB Leipzig the more likely winner at 44%, with a 24% chance of a draw. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives PSV a 32% chance of beating RB Leipzig, with 44% for RB Leipzig and 24% for a draw. PSV are at home but the underdog on these numbers.
AccuScore projects RB Leipzig 2.1, PSV 1.8, with 2-1 the single most likely scoreline.