Atlético Madrid
Manchester United
Win Probability
Moneyline
ATL
42.6% win prob
Moneyline
MUN
33.8% win prob
Projected score
1.9 – 1.7
Atlético Madrid travels to Manchester United in a Champions League matchup where the simulation leans slightly toward the visitors. Ten thousand simulations project a narrow margin, with the most likely outcome a 1–1 draw occurring in 9% of runs. The game hinges on whether either side can find a second goal; AccuScore's model on similarly shaped win-probability calls has returned 56% over 758 past games. For Manchester United to overturn the slight favourite, the hosts would need to convert chances at a higher rate than the projection allows.
Champions League
AccuScore's simulation makes Atlético Madrid 43% to win, Manchester United 34%, with a 24% chance of a draw. Projected score: Atlético Madrid 1.9, Manchester United 1.7. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1 (9% of simulations).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Atlético Madrid the more likely winner at 43%, with a 24% chance of a draw. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Manchester United a 34% chance of beating Atlético Madrid, with 43% for Atlético Madrid and 24% for a draw. Manchester United are at home but the underdog on these numbers.
AccuScore projects Atlético Madrid 1.9, Manchester United 1.7, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline.